Will work some more when it gets windy....have a suspion that a non-spinning pellet (see not #1) does odd things in a side wind that a spinning pellet mostly avoids.
Note: Smooth bores are "knuckle balls". The travel pretty straight over the short haul, but randomly pick up spin as they travel No rotational stability, so a little nudge here or there by wind or surface irregularites seems to make a much bigger difference after 20-30 yards.
That fixed it.